Optimistic view: burnout from additional COVID waves, significant reimbursement cuts from all angles, dealing with APM, and significant increase in documentation burden causes people to retire or leave clinical medicine entirely, opening potential jobs for new grads
Pessimistic view: those new grads endured multiple COVID waves in residency training, will have to navigate significant reimbursement cuts from all angles, deal with APM, and the documentation burden will continue to increase, meaning significantly more manhours are required for stagnate-to-decreased salaries and increasing limitations on autonomy
Because I did my intern year in a traditional Internal Medicine residency program, I still get texts and emails for Hospitalist or other IM positions, with salaries better than the ARRO survey-endorsed median starting salary for new RadOnc grads...and we haven't even entered the APM timeline yet.
But, just like there have always been people willing to go practice rural Family Medicine in the Appalachian hills, there will always be medical students interested in Radiation Oncology. I imagine a future where Memorial Sloan Kettering's Radiation Oncology Department hosts a yearly talk entitled "Minnesota Rural Physician Loan Forgiveness Guidelines".