As others have said, the match list is likely low yield. There could a particular year where everyone in that class wanted to get into a certain specialty. The pass rate on the licensing exams could provide some insights that would be more helpful, but that can also be skewed. Many factors in the licensing exam come down to how much effort the individual put into studying for classes, and also for the exam itself.
The logistics piece may be the place to focus the most. For example, proximity to friends/family. If one of them becomes ill, how difficult will it be to check in or visit them? If you have a significant other, what are their thoughts on the location (e.g. employment, recreation, family, etc.). You may want understand their thoughts, if it is a serious relationship. How easy is it to get to recreational activities that you enjoy or want to try? Driving/travelling hours can be very inconvenient. How much is each school to attend? Many medical students come out of medical school with substantial debt, and how long do you want to be carrying the loans for?
Thanks.
Wook